TY - JOUR
T1 - A Daphnia population model that considers pesticide exposure and demographic stochasticity
AU - Erickson, Richard A.
AU - Cox, Stephen B.
AU - Oates, Jessica L.
AU - Anderson, Todd A.
AU - Salice, Christopher J.
AU - Long, Kevin R.
N1 - Funding Information:
WE Thogmartin and two anonymous reviewers provided useful comments and feedback. RAE received funding from the Helen Jones Foundation and the Achievement Reward for College Scientists Foundation . This research was also supported by funds ( FA8903-12-C-0008 ) from the US Air Force Center for Environmental Excellence to CJS.
Funding Information:
This paper was developed under STAR Fellowship Assistance Agreement no. FP91713201 awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). It has not been formally reviewed by EPA. The views expressed in this paper are solely those of Richard A. Erickson, and EPA does not endorse any products or commercial services mentioned in this paper.
PY - 2014/3/10
Y1 - 2014/3/10
N2 - Population models have emerged as a powerful tool to better understand the ecological effects of toxicant exposure. Currently, most ecotoxicology population models are deterministic and fail to account for natural variability in biological processes and uncertainty in parameter estimates. We developed, parameterized, and analyzed a Daphnia population model with three different levels of demographic stochasticity to examine how a pesticide, pendimethalin, affects population dynamics. We conducted laboratory studies to generate the data used for the modeling process. The simplest model only included parameter uncertainty and variability. The second model included daily stochastic fecundities. The third model included stochastic fecundities and stochastic mortalities. Of the three models, the second model with stochastic fecundity best described our laboratory test system. All three models were used to test hypotheses about how pesticides would affect population dynamics. We found that pendimethalin either decreased the baseline juvenile survivorship rate or the carrying capacity. We could differentiate the two test effects with our system. Our findings demonstrate how stochastic population models may provide insight into pesticide exposure.
AB - Population models have emerged as a powerful tool to better understand the ecological effects of toxicant exposure. Currently, most ecotoxicology population models are deterministic and fail to account for natural variability in biological processes and uncertainty in parameter estimates. We developed, parameterized, and analyzed a Daphnia population model with three different levels of demographic stochasticity to examine how a pesticide, pendimethalin, affects population dynamics. We conducted laboratory studies to generate the data used for the modeling process. The simplest model only included parameter uncertainty and variability. The second model included daily stochastic fecundities. The third model included stochastic fecundities and stochastic mortalities. Of the three models, the second model with stochastic fecundity best described our laboratory test system. All three models were used to test hypotheses about how pesticides would affect population dynamics. We found that pendimethalin either decreased the baseline juvenile survivorship rate or the carrying capacity. We could differentiate the two test effects with our system. Our findings demonstrate how stochastic population models may provide insight into pesticide exposure.
KW - Demographic stochasticity
KW - Ecotoxicology
KW - Population modeling
KW - Stochastic
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84891895922&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.12.015
DO - 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.12.015
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84891895922
SN - 0304-3800
VL - 275
SP - 37
EP - 47
JO - Ecological Modelling
JF - Ecological Modelling
ER -