A comprehensive model of regional electric vehicle adoption and penetration

Roxana J. Javid, Ali Nejat

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

82 Scopus citations


This study focused on the adoption of Plug-in Electric Vehicles (PEVs) as a policy towards having a more sustainable transportation with lower Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. The current paper aimed to explore potential factors that can be attributed to purchasing PEVs in order to estimate their penetration in 58 California counties. A Multiple Logistic Regression Analysis was applied to the 2012 California Household Travel Survey dataset, which includes both PEV and conventional car buyers’ information, as well as some other secondary data sources. The model developed a broad set of factors including demographic and travel-related characteristics, socioeconomic variables, and infrastructural and regional specifications. The results identified that a household's income, maximum level of education in the household, the buyer's car sharing status, charging stations density, and gas price in the region can significantly impact PEV adoption. The model was validated using data from the 2012 Household Travel Survey conducted in the Delaware Valley region. With sufficient data availability, the methodology can be applied to evaluate changes in vehicle fleet composition and the levels of emissions in response to transportation policies. The model is believed to have a wide range of applications in electricity utilizing, gasoline/diesel retailing, and battery and automotive manufacturing. Additionally, the model can assist policy makers and transportation planners to optimize their infrastructural investments by identifying counties where the response of drivers to added charging station would be maximized, implying that larger benefits can be achieved.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)30-42
Number of pages13
JournalTransport Policy
StatePublished - Feb 1 2017


  • Adoption behavior modeling
  • Charging stations
  • Plug-in electric vehicles
  • Regional penetration level
  • Socioeconomic factors
  • Sustainable transportation


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