A Bayesian spatial econometric analysis of the 2010 UK general election

Christa D. Jensen; Donald J. Lacombe; Stuart G. Mcintyre

doi:10.1111/j.1435-5957.2012.00415.x

A Bayesian spatial econometric analysis of the 2010 UK general election

Christa D. Jensen, Donald J. Lacombe, Stuart G. Mcintyre

Personal Financial Planning

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

The Conservative Party won the 2010 General Election in the United Kingdom, gaining the most votes and seats of any single party. Using Bayesian spatial econometric methods, we show that significant spatial dependence exists in Conservative voting behaviour and select the spatial Durbin model as the best model to explain this phenomenon. This paper examines these spatial effects as well as the effects of a range of economic, socio-economic, and political variables. Perhaps the most interesting result is that incumbency has effects beyond an incumbent's own constituency.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	651-666
Number of pages	16
Journal	Papers in Regional Science
Volume	92
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1435-5957.2012.00415.x
State	Published - Aug 1 2013

Fingerprint

Keywords

2010 UK General Election
Spatial econometric analysis
Spatial voting analysis

Cite this

Jensen, C. D., Lacombe, D. J., & Mcintyre, S. G. (2013). A Bayesian spatial econometric analysis of the 2010 UK general election. Papers in Regional Science, 92(3), 651-666. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1435-5957.2012.00415.x

@article{f2ca7450e8084a199ae29e95ae8bf4ed,

title = "A Bayesian spatial econometric analysis of the 2010 UK general election",

abstract = "The Conservative Party won the 2010 General Election in the United Kingdom, gaining the most votes and seats of any single party. Using Bayesian spatial econometric methods, we show that significant spatial dependence exists in Conservative voting behaviour and select the spatial Durbin model as the best model to explain this phenomenon. This paper examines these spatial effects as well as the effects of a range of economic, socio-economic, and political variables. Perhaps the most interesting result is that incumbency has effects beyond an incumbent's own constituency.",

keywords = "2010 UK General Election, Spatial econometric analysis, Spatial voting analysis",

author = "Jensen, {Christa D.} and Lacombe, {Donald J.} and Mcintyre, {Stuart G.}",

year = "2013",

month = aug,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1111/j.1435-5957.2012.00415.x",

language = "English",

volume = "92",

pages = "651--666",

journal = "Papers in Regional Science",

issn = "1056-8190",

number = "3",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - A Bayesian spatial econometric analysis of the 2010 UK general election

AU - Jensen, Christa D.

AU - Lacombe, Donald J.

AU - Mcintyre, Stuart G.

PY - 2013/8/1

Y1 - 2013/8/1

N2 - The Conservative Party won the 2010 General Election in the United Kingdom, gaining the most votes and seats of any single party. Using Bayesian spatial econometric methods, we show that significant spatial dependence exists in Conservative voting behaviour and select the spatial Durbin model as the best model to explain this phenomenon. This paper examines these spatial effects as well as the effects of a range of economic, socio-economic, and political variables. Perhaps the most interesting result is that incumbency has effects beyond an incumbent's own constituency.

AB - The Conservative Party won the 2010 General Election in the United Kingdom, gaining the most votes and seats of any single party. Using Bayesian spatial econometric methods, we show that significant spatial dependence exists in Conservative voting behaviour and select the spatial Durbin model as the best model to explain this phenomenon. This paper examines these spatial effects as well as the effects of a range of economic, socio-economic, and political variables. Perhaps the most interesting result is that incumbency has effects beyond an incumbent's own constituency.

KW - 2010 UK General Election

KW - Spatial econometric analysis

KW - Spatial voting analysis

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84881551291&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1111/j.1435-5957.2012.00415.x

DO - 10.1111/j.1435-5957.2012.00415.x

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84881551291

VL - 92

SP - 651

EP - 666

JO - Papers in Regional Science

JF - Papers in Regional Science

SN - 1056-8190

IS - 3

ER -

Access to Document

10.1111/j.1435-5957.2012.00415.x

Link to publication in Scopus